Addie Conner.
Founding contributor of Forecast Registry, the neutral standards body for catastrophe-pricing calibration credentials. Operator of the reference forecaster, the Chorus Public Ledger. Proposer of the calibration-credential methodology under NAIC Model Bulletin 30 §3(D), filed during the 60-day public comment window 2026-06-05 through 2026-08-04.
Reference forecaster track record
The Chorus Public Ledger is a public, SHA-256-locked, OpenTimestamps-anchored record of probabilistic forecasts. As of 2026-06-05, the ledger contains 1,963 logged predictions; 82 are resolved. Reported under the registry's mandatory (source, n, slice, filter) tuple:
- Headline mean Brier: 0.0706 — slice: in-headline forward subset; filter: forward-only; n = 23.
- High-conviction mean Brier: 0.0399 — slice: in-headline forward subset; filter: forward-only + |p − 0.5| > 0.20; n = 18. This sits in the FiveThirtyEight state-level-call calibration tier (Brier 0.05–0.07 per Silver, The Signal and the Noise; FiveThirtyEight calibration archives) — orientation only, not a direct apples-to-apples comparison.
- Atlantic-hurricane peril retrodictive: n = 20; mean Brier 0.2002; BSS +0.199 vs climatology. Slice: CSU April pre-season issuances 2020–2024; resolution source: NOAA NCEI IBTrACS v04r01 NA basin (57 MB CSV; SHA-256 recorded in
data/atlantic_hurricane_retrodictive.json).
Prior work
Three prior exits.
- SocialCode (paid-social agency, founded 2009). Acquired by Mediabrands; subsequently rolled into S4 Capital / Decoded Advertising. Founding team. Source: public M&A reporting on the S4 Capital roll-up.
- Decoded Advertising (creative-tech agency). Acquired by S4 Capital. Senior leadership role; product and analytics function.
- Breathwrk (consumer behavior-change software). Acquired by Peloton.
Earlier-career: Avenue100 / Link-Ventures — the Blundin-style portfolio holdco that produced the snapshot-and-fork IP model later applied to Chorus and Forecast Registry. Direct experience of the institutional measurement-firm sale playbook.
Other relevant positions: Facebook Product Council advisor (paid-social and measurement infrastructure). Current: Chorus Public Ledger (operator); Forecast Registry (founding contributor).
Education
University of Vermont. Economics and Statistics.
What I am proposing with Forecast Registry
The NAIC Model Bulletin on the Use of Artificial Intelligence Systems by Insurers (Bulletin 30, adopted December 4, 2023) is silent on which specific calibration metric qualifies as adequate AI-system validation under §3(D). The Bulletin requires governance, testing, monitoring, and validation — but it does not say what calibration looks like.
Vendor catastrophe models (RMS / Verisk AIR / Munich Re NATCAT) drive an estimated $100B+ in annual reinsurance and catastrophe-bond pricing decisions. None publish pre-registered, time-stamped, out-of-sample probabilistic forecasts subsequently scored against realized events on a public ledger. Their accuracy is unauditable by anyone outside the vendor.
Forecast Registry methodology v1.0 fills the gap: a SHA-256-locked, OpenTimestamps-Bitcoin-anchored, Brier-scored, lifelong-public credential, segmented across eight canonical peril classes, scored against resolution sources already in regulatory practice (NOAA IBTrACS, CAL FIRE, NIFC, USGS, NOAA SPC, USDA NASS, PERILS, JMA). Methodology under CC-BY 4.0; code under MIT; free to regulators by structural commitment.
Operating principles I bring to this work
- Every quantitative claim ships with provenance. The
(source, n, slice, filter)tuple is non-negotiable. No invented numbers. - Honesty about what is known and unknown. The Atlantic-hurricane backfill is complete; the other seven peril classes are scoped in the data-acquisition plan with engineering-day estimates and access-cost detail.
- SHA-locked at creation; OTS-anchored before resolution. Corrections are issued as superseding rows, never as in-place edits.
- Forecaster-agnostic by structural commitment. The reference forecaster I operate (Chorus) is the founding reference, not the only intended contributor. Vendor cat models are explicitly welcome under the standard.
- Standards body, not commercial forecaster. Chorus and Forecast Registry are commercially separate. I operate Chorus under a separate brand to preserve the registry's perceived neutrality.
Contact
- Methodology comments: comments@forecast-registry.org (open through 2026-08-04).
- General: hello@forecast-registry.org.
- Reference forecaster: chorus-public-ledger.pages.dev.
Last reviewed 2026-06-05.